Trump’s re-election a toss-up for the Middle East, says Israeli analyst

Donald Trump’s return to the White House for a second term presents complex challenges for the Middle East, including for Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, says Yonatan Touval, a senior foreign policy analyst at Mitvim, the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, in Tel Aviv.

“While Netanyahu appears to be gloating over Trump’s victory, a second Trump administration with a stronger isolationist ‘America First’ stance could complicate Netanyahu’s ambitions and make American backing less reliable,” he tells Kathimerini.

“Trump’s recent statements urging Netanyahu to end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon promptly, without offering diplomatic alternatives, could also signal potential friction with Netanyahu, who appears interested in negotiating a diplomatic end to the war in Lebanon all while continuing the war in Gaza indefinitely,” he adds.

Beyond Israel, Trump’s victory could mean the prospect of tightening sanctions and increased tensions for Iran, while among Arab and Muslim communities, “reactions are understandably mixed, with some viewing positively Trump’s likely break with traditional US Middle East policies, while others worry that the Trump administration will lead to escalating tensions.”

Trump’s past actions – such as recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem, and his dead-on-arrival Peace Plan – “bode ill for proponents of a viable Israeli-Palestinian two-state solution,” says Touval.

“Indeed, there is a strong possibility he might endorse a version of a two-state solution with extensive Israeli land annexations. If Saudi Arabia accepts such a deal, it could put an end to the prospect of Palestinian statehood on the basis of the 1967 borders,” the analyst argues.