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Pakistan after bin Laden-Show and tell

by | May 10, 2011 | English

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osama-bin-landen-pic

osama-bin-landen-pic

The Economist

THE ageing man, remote control in hand, staring at a television in a messy, ill-lit room, hardly looks threatening. Video footage released by the Americans at the weekend, reportedly seized by Navy Seals who raided Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad six days earlier, appears to show the world’s most wanted terrorist crouched on the floor and flicking through cable news clips about himself. The muted footage, along with four other less interesting video clips of him rehearsing and giving a message to his followers, is presumably intended to help convince doubters (there are still many, at least in Pakistan) that Mr bin Laden was indeed in the compound when the Americans attacked, and that he is now dead.

 

The footage has been released probably for other reasons too. We now know that al-Qaeda’s leader dyed his beard from grey to black, and that he occasionally stumbled when preparing to record his taped messages. That he took care to control the image he presented to the world is not surprising, but the apparent fact that these recordings were made recently helps suggest that his role was not passive, but rather that he continued to toil from his safehouse in Pakistan to promote the terrorist group.

The Americans go further still. They say they will not release any more of the “treasure trove” of material taken from the house, but claim that they have plenty of other evidence that Mr bin Laden was remarkably active, using his home in Pakistan as a “command-and-control centre”. If so, that suggests many leads that may now be traced, and many plots potentially foiled, thanks to the raid. Perhaps the intelligence gains will prove to be of even greater importance for counterterrorist efforts than the killing of Mr bin Laden.

 

For Pakistan’s leaders, however, this just makes their failures, or rather their spies’ failures, all the more troublesome. If Mr bin Laden had been sitting quietly and talking to nobody, it might have been easier to explain how Pakistan’s supposedly efficient military spy service, the Inter-Services Intelligence directorate (ISI), failed to notice he was living beside a prestigious military academy, among retired generals, for several years. An active al-Qaeda leader, however, would surely have left more traces and leads. Potentially troubling, too, is the suggestion, passed on by Mr bin Laden’s Yemeni wife, now in custody in Pakistan, that the al-Qaeda leader had earlier lived in an urban area near Haripur, a town even closer to Islamabad.

The Americans are now demanding that Pakistan hand over the names of its spies who deal with hunting for al-Qaeda, presumably so its own investigators can look for evidence of complicity in the hiding of Mr bin Laden. The boss of the ISI, General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, was rumoured to have rushed to Washington this weekend, presumably to explain what Pakistan knew about the compound and to hear of more demands from the Americans. If indeed he went (the Pakistani government is denying it) he presumably heard additional demands: for Pakistan to return bits of the supposed “stealth” helicopter that was blown up by the Americans during the raid, and for American access to the remaining witnesses, largely Mr bin Laden’s family, from the compound.

The humiliation of Pakistan’s government over the whole affair is gradually crystallising into a call for the wholesale resignations of leaders. Opposition politicians, newspaper columnists and a disaffected former foreign minister are beginning to find their voice. It is rare to see public criticism of the ISI and the army, institutions usually reckoned to be the only well-functioning parts of the Pakistani state and, given the country’s history of coups, usually immune to public sniping. General Pasha may have to quit. General Ashraf Kayani, the army chief of staff, has lost some of his sway over the civilian leaders, notably President Asif Zardari.

 

 

What of relations between Pakistan and the United States? Calls from Congress for aid to be slashed are likely to fade quickly, especially after  the more informed senators, such as John McCain and John Kerry, point out that shunning Pakistan has brought America hardship in the past, that a close eye needs to be kept on its fast-growing nuclear arsenal and that, in any case, America relies heavily on Pakistan to transport supplies for its war in Afghanistan. 

Yet there is still potential for relations to get much frostier. A planned trip by Hillary Clinton to Pakistan, apparently set for later this month, and one that Barack Obama was expected to make later this year, may be scrapped. Similarly Mr Zardari, who has been hoping for an official trip to Washington, may have to stay at home. America is likely to press harder for Pakistan to tackle other extremist groups on its soil, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, which is thought to have been behind the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks. Pakistanis may reasonably fear that the latest debacle on their territory will encourage yet warmer ties between America and India.

 

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