Votes of Independents Could Be Key

By JANET HOOK, Wall Street Journal

Mitt Romney, facing a barrage of polls showing him tied with or lagging behind President Barack Obama nationally and in battleground states, remains optimistic about winning.

One big reason: Mr. Romney's support from independent voters, a force his camp argues will be decisive in the end.

The Republican nominee is leading among independent voters 47% to 40%, in a new national Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. Independents accounted for about 14% of likely voters in the Journal survey.

Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who conducts the survey along with Democratic pollster Peter Hart, said that number represents a big red flag for Mr. Obama.

"You are really flirting with trouble if you're losing independents by this margin," he said.

Mr. Obama's relative weakness among independent voters suggests he will need a strong turnout from his core Democratic supporters to make up the difference. Mr. Hart said the higher the turnout among registered Democrats, the less significant any deficit will be for Mr. Obama among independent voters.

There are some signs that Mr. Obama is making last-minute gains among independents. The poll found that Mr. Obama's share of the independent vote has inched up to 40% from 37% since late September and early October, while Mr. Romney's share has remained unchanged at 47%.

Perhaps more important is how the candidates are faring among independent voters in swing states such as Ohio and Virginia. There, too, Mr. Romney leads, though by smaller margins: The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist Poll found Mr. Romney leading among independents in Virginia, 48% to 43%, and in Ohio by 48% to 44%.

"Any pollster will tell you that if you are winning independents in Ohio, you are winning Ohio," said Rich Beeson, political director of the Romney campaign.

Obama spokesman Ben LaBolt rejects the view that Mr. Romney has a hold on independent voters in battleground states, noting that Mr. Obama is ahead among independents in other important states such as Iowa. There, the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist Poll found Mr. Obama leading 47% to 39% among independents.

And in other battleground states, such as Nevada, Mr. Obama's support among registered Democrats is strong enough to make up for any deficit among independents.

"What matters is that we're up in key states, on a path to 270," said Mr. LaBolt, referring to the number of votes in the Electoral College needed to win the White House.

However, it is clear that Mr. Obama isn't doing as well among independent voters now as in 2008, when exit polls showed him winning independents by a 52%-44% margin over Sen. John McCain (R., Ariz.). Four years earlier, George W. Bush won the presidency even though exit polls showed him narrowly losing independent voters to Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry by one percentage point, 49% to 48%.

Independent voters are an especially valuable political asset, because they make up a fast-growing part of the electorate. That doesn't always show up in opinion surveys; when voters decide to back a candidate, they also tend to identify themselves with that candidate's party.

But voter registration numbers show voters turning away from one party or another. Some don't like being pigeonholed, even if they tend to vote consistently for one party. "I'm not ever going to vote a straight party ticket,'' said Leiza Hall, an employment consultant to the North Carolina state government. But Ms. Hall, who is voting for Mr. Romney, said she is conservative and usually votes for Republicans for president.

Others are independents because their ideological views are complicated. Katherine Chandler of Greensboro, N.C., who said she is no big-government liberal but is supporting Mr. Obama because "he was left a hot mess that could not be fixed in four years and he has more support for the middle class than Mitt Romney."

An analysis released last week by Third Way, a group of Democratic centrists, found the number of voters registering as independents in eight battleground states has risen 14.4% since 2008. Democratic registration, by contrast, has dropped 2.5%, and Republican registration has gained 1.3%, the group found.

Still other independents say they will eschew both candidates and back libertarian candidate Gary Johnson. "I don't think there's much difference between Romney and Obama," said John Engelberger, 35, of Leesburg, Va. "They are both going to succumb to Wall Street."