Showdown: Crucial 48 hours for Greece

by | Feb 11, 2015 | English

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By Holly Ellyatt, CNBC

Ahead of a crucial meeting in Brussels to discuss Greece’s moribund bailout program, the country’s friends and foes are making their feelings known about the country’s economic future – which could be hanging in the balance.

Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis is expected to announce something of a four-pillar overhaul of the country’s current bailout program when he meets with other euro zone finance ministers on Wednesday.

He is likely to propose new reforms — to make up for the ones that the new Greek government wants to scrap — and to ask for a “bridge program” to cover the government’s funding needs while a new debt pact is agreed.

Wednesday’s meeting, due to start at 4:30 p.m. GMT, will also address Varoufakis’ calls for a reduction of Greece’s primary surplus target – from 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) to 1.49 percent — and a humanitarian aid plan to help Greeks.

Pierre Moscovici, European Union economy commissioner, said this “special session” of euro zone finance ministers was “very important.”

“It will be the occasion for the Greek finance minister to come and tell us what his precise ideas are. It will be the moment for us to listen to him and it will be the moment for him to listen to us,” Moscovici told CNBC on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Istanbul Tuesday.

Read MoreGreece in spotlight for markets as Eurogroup meets

“Of course, there are changes (to the bailout program) required by the Greek people that need to be heard, but at the same time the Greek government needs to be conscious that there are German voters, French voters, Italian voters and so on and we need to build a compromise.”

Moscovici, who is also the former French finance minister, added that Greece had to respect its commitments to the current bailout program, which is due to finish at the end of this month.

The meeting comes after a tumultuous couple of weeks in power for the new Greek government. The country’s controversial bailout program has dominated discussions between Greece and the so-called troika – made up of the European Commission, European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund — which oversees its financial aid.

On Tuesday, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras won a vote of confidence in parliament, indicating that the government’s strategy to transform its unpopular bailout program has the support of the majority of the country’s politicians.

German resistance

Greece could meet hard resistance from German finance Minister Wolfgang Scheuble on Wednesday, however, as the Germans have repeatedly stated that Greece has to abide by its bailout and the conditions attached to it.

European markets rose Tuesday on rumors that a compromise was on the cards between Greece and its lenders.

However, Scheuble poured cold water on the rumors, saying there were no plans to give Greece more time or a new aid program and that no one outside of the country was to blame for its economic woes. Markets were flat on Wednesday.

“Despite optimism yesterday of a move towards a deal for Greece, ahead of the much anticipated emergency Eurogroup meeting today, it doesn’t feel anywhere near close enough to one minute to midnight for us to see resolution yet,” Deutsche Bank analysts led by Jim Reid wrote in a note Wednesday.

“It also doesn’t feel markets are stressed enough to focus minds at this point. It seems to us there needs to be a bit more tension before any agreements can be made if indeed they eventually are.”

From Russia with love?

So far, the ECB has refused a bridging loan for Greece and the troika has said that the country will not receive its last tranche of financial aid until Greece abides by the conditions of that aid – such as austerity measures and a privatization program.

The impasse has prompted market watchers to speculate that Greece could turn to somewhere like China or Russia for financial aid – a view Greece has not rushed to deny, prompting accusations that it was trying to “blackmail” Europe into bailout concessions.

China said on Wednesday that it “knows nothing” about economic support for Greece while Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told CNBC Tuesday that Russia had not been asked for financial aid from its old ally.

“Well, the truth of the matter is that we have not received any requests for help from our Greek colleagues. We have not had any negotiations on the topic,” he said.

With Russia’s economy also struggling and its currency seeing substantial depreciation, Siluanov joked that if a request for aid was made by Greece, support would be offered in “Russian rubles only.” 

 

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