Why Are Turkey And Saudi Arabia Mending Fences With Each Other?

Erdogan’s visit is bound to open a new trajectory in West Asian geopolitics. After the talks, he said on Twitter: “We believe that it is in our common interest to increase our cooperation with Saudi Arabia in areas such as health, energy, food safety, agricultural technologies, defence industry and finance.” His visit in many ways is a strategic visit.

Dropping the demand to conduct a Turkish trial of Saudi agents who were believed to have been culprits in Jamal Khashogi’s case, he undertook this diplomatic drive at a time when the Turkey is looming in the  severe economic crisis and as a result Erdogan losing the political confidence in the eyes of the populace.

Erdogan’s ailing economy is in desperate need of Saudi funding. Promises of commercial partnerships and a source of revenue to supplement his state’s depleted resources would be welcomed. This type of assistance allows the Turkish president to stay in office for longer.

What are Turkey’s motivations in seeking rapprochement?

In view of elections next year, for Erdogan, this visit should be a part of his political campaign to build his approval at home and increase his relevance internationally by engaging in high-level diplomacy. He already knows how normalising relations with the rivals can be so profitable and beneficial. For instance, after restoring ties with Abu Dhabi, it announced a $10 billion fund to support investments in Turkey and made other moves to support the economy.

Today Saudi is experiencing high economic growth. Higher energy prices are expected to bring in more over $400 billion in revenue for Saudi Arabia this year. In short, Saudis have enough capability to invest in the foreign lands. No wonder Erdogan was prudent enough to seek rapprochement with Saudi Arabia now.

Through this rapprochement, Turkey wants to sign a trade agreement with Saudi Arabia because its exports to the kingdom have dropped from $3.2 billion to $200 million by 2021. Broadly speaking, Saudi Arabia can play a restorative role in the ailing Turkish economy.

What will Saudi Arabia gain?

Firstly, as the scandal is being put to an end by the Turkish government, for Saudi Arabia, this is an opportunity to witness a restoration of her image and reputation, which were so tarnished  for the last couple of years. Many prominent investors backed away from Saudi ever since it got entangled in the scandal. Now if the relations are normalised to a certain extent, Saudi can continue to attract the eminent investments.

For Saudi Arabia, reconciliation with Turkey has another great significance. Through broadening her alliance with Turkey, Saudi can balance and put pressure on Iran and in so doing it can attain the capacity to anchor a new balance of power in the region.

Finally, the United States’ credibility as a regional security supplier is eroding. Since the Arab Spring, when the United States refused to support Saudi Arabia’s royal family, this problem has become more pronounced. Even as the US’ credibility diminishes, with the cooperation of Turkey, Saudi Arabia can establish an alternative  security framework in West Asia.