Erdoğan’s dangerous game

By Helen Hernandez,

In fact, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is playing a very funny game: he hopes to come out twice as a winner in the great geopolitical backgammon of the moment by using both black and white pawns. By advancing its interests on the two opposing sides of the same table.

It’s quite fascinating to watch, but it also seems obvious that this strategy is more than dangerous for the country he rules with an iron fist.

On Tuesday in Tehran, during meetings with his Iranian and Russian counterparts, Ibrahim Raisi and Vladimir Putin, President Erdoğan tried both to manage his complex relations with the two pet peeves of the West and to defend the military offensive. he wants to carry out against the Kurdish armed groups in northern Syria. And all this while serving as an international moderator working to end the Russian embargo on Ukrainian grain. Both hawk and dove in the same afternoon. Tock, tock.

Over the past two months, the Turkish president has also blown hot and cold simultaneously within NATO. In May, he initially opposed Finland and Sweden joining the military alliance reinvigorated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. At the end of June, he traded his veto for promises from Helsinki and Stockholm to collaborate with Turkey in its hunt for “terrorists”.

In this basket, there are both members and sympathizers of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), whose armed guerrillas have been fighting the Turkish army for more than 30 years, as well as the faithful of the Gülen movement. This Muslim brotherhood is accused by Ankara of having fomented and executed the failed coup of July 2016. The Turkish president notably asks Sweden to extradite 73 individuals to Turkey.

In exchange for lifting its veto, Turkey also obtained concessions from Joe Biden’s administration on the purchase of F-16 fighter jets.

Let’s say it’s called scoring a lot of points with one roll of the dice.

But never mind, player Erdoğan is questioning his deal these days, urging Sweden to do more, faster. As luck would have it, his threats were made the day before his Turkish-Russian-Iranian summit. Tock, tock.

And we cannot forget his strategy in relation to the war in Ukraine. Turkey refuses to impose sanctions on Russia for its unprovoked aggression, but sells drones to Ukraine. The latter – the Bayraktars, invented by the son-in-law of President Erdoğan – are so efficient that the Ukrainians sing their praises!

A white pawn, a black pawn, again.

For the moment, the Turkish leader seems to be doing quite well, but it would take one too many blows for everything to collapse. Difficult to play on two tables at the same time without making enemies, without losing friends.

How long will Washington let Turkey rain or shine at NATO? And how long will the strange Russian-Turkish friendship survive the disputes in Syria and Ukraine?

It’s a safe bet that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hopes to continue to do the balancing act until the legislative and presidential elections of June 2023.

“If Erdoğan plays, it is for the survival of his regime,” believes Vahid Yucesoy, researcher at the Center for International Studies and Research at the University of Montreal (CERIUM) and doctoral candidate in political science.

When the Head of State raises his voice on the Kurdish question, when he stands up to the West, when he allows the Ukrainians to defend themselves without attacking Russia with full force, it is up to the Turkish electorate that the islamo-conservative politician speaks.

And this electorate escapes him more and more. For the first time in 20 years, the main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), supplants Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the polls, notes the expert of the Turkey.

With his prowess on the international scene, Erdoğan thus whips up the nationalist fiber of his Turkish voters while trying to make them forget the immense economic problems of the country: galloping inflation and the tumble of the Turkish lira.

According to Vahid Yucesoy, it would be enough for Erdoğan’s double game abroad to end up having a negative impact on the Turkish economy for the game to turn sour.

The problem is that a whole country would pay for it. Not just its president.

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