Is Turkey an ally or a foe?

By Herkül Millas, Ahval,

It is difficult to predict the course of the events in personalized regimes. Turkey is such a case, and unpredictable Erdogan is widely discussed worldwide as of his intentions.

The strongman sustains an unstable equilibrium between East and West, Putin and Biden and democracy and authoritarianism, building up tension and queries regarding his future choices.

Many analysts advise cautious measures and a policy of “wait and see” vis-à-vis Turkey hoping for a better future after probable political changes in Turkey.

There are, however, steps already taken which incur immediate results beyond speculations. The role of Erdogan in the Ukraine-Russia crisis is decisively clear. By not following the West in imposing sanctions against Russia, Turkey exercises great pressure on the Western and especially on European countries that experience energy shortage and economic difficulties.

NATO countries and the West in general took a strategic decision at a very high cost:  Ukraine is to be supported and the sanctions against the invader will be continued in spite of Russia’s counter-sanctions of not supplying the gas which is vital for Europe.

The winner of this bra de fer cannot be foreseen at present. Russia expects that Europe would not be able to handle the shortage of gas during the winter and the related popular reaction; and on the other hand, the West is hoping that Russia will succumb to the financial cost incurred by the sanctions.

The end result will depend on which side will be able to cope with the “cost”. The victory will be attained by a margin depending on who will yield first in this neck-to-neck fight.

At this crucial stage Turkey is on the side of Russia. The Russian oligarchs found a sanctuary in Turkey, where they keep their yachts and bank reserves. And Russia sustains its export, trade and investments through Turkey.

The effectiveness of the Western sanctions is seriously impaired. This “safety valve” for Russia is not a blow to the Western initiatives: it may prove to be the decisive blow to the key Western strategy. The role of Turkey will be the last straw to determine the winner.

Under the present conjuncture the “wait and see” policy is void of meaning.

Decisions have been taken and the plans are being executed. The expected result of the “war of sanctions” is jeopardized. Sacrifices of the Europeans – a cold winter, inflation and economic recession – may be wasted due to a hesitance in confronting a personalized regime. Its present harm cannot be underrated based on an expected probable future profit.

The effective sanctions or their evasion will determine the winner of the Ukraine war. The high price paid until now may prove a waste of efforts, if the “policy of appeasment” is not reconsidered and the wavering policies of Erdogan are not challenged.