Why Assad desperately needs Erdogan’s recognition

By KHALED ABOU ZAHR, Arab News,

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently said that he might meet Syria’s Bashar Assad to foster peace and stability. One might ask what could be the outcome of such a meeting, and what it would change for Syria.
Speculation is already growing following a successful meeting involving Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, intelligence chief Hakan Fidan and Syrian officials in Moscow. These discussions were an important step in restoring Assad’s position as uncontested president. Indeed, Turkiye’s recognition has been missing since Assad regained control over a large part of the country following the 2011 uprisings.

Within this framework between Turkiye and Syria, we can consider that Israel, Iran, the US and Russia will also be present. And, just like the two protagonists, they will probably vacillate from one position to another depending on the issue or topic discussed. This will favor Assad, who will gain valuable bargaining tools to reestablish his position.
The most obvious and urgent topic is the situation in northern Syria. Turkiye’s confrontation with the YPG and the threat of a major military offensive have strangely aligned Moscow, Washington and Tehran, which are all on the same side but for different reasons. The US supports the mainly Kurdish group, which was an element in the fight against Daesh. Russia is seeking stability for the entire territory that Turkiye is marginalizing. It is highly unlikely Turkiye will get the green light from Moscow or Washington for any military attack.

Moreover, in a bizarre twist, Ankara’s position has contributed to bringing the Syrian Democratic Forces closer to Assad. Erdogan will look for clear concessions on autonomy and greater control over the activities of the YPG, something that Assad has little influence over and only the US can impose.

Northern Syria is not the only area where Assad needs to regain control. Damascus airport has become a focus of the regime’s weakness and fragility. Indeed, Tel Aviv has taken a much more aggressive military approach, with strikes on Syrian territory increasing dramatically in recent years and the airport a frequent target of the Israeli air force. It is a sign that Iran has become much more powerful in Syria and taken greater liberties in military activities. This has placed the regime at a crossroads when it comes to the confrontation between Israel and Iran. Once again, Assad has little control over the situation, and with the current US administration still looking for a nuclear deal, it presents an ambiguous balance.

One can highlight issue after issue over which Assad lacks influence. Yet, it provides him with a virtual bargaining toolbox to regain regional and international recognition. This is clear even in the dynamics between Syria’s allies Moscow and Tehran. Many experts have predicted that with its involvement in Ukraine, Russia would be less able to get involved in Syria. The meeting in Moscow between Syrian and Turkish officials proves this is not completely true.

Many experts have predicted that with its involvement in Ukraine, Russia would be less able to get involved in Syria. The meeting in Moscow between Syrian and Turkish officials proves this is not completely true.

Khaled Abou Zahr

Nevertheless, the dynamic of the relationship between Russia and Iran is both collaborative and competitive for influence within the power centers in Syria. Today, with their military collaboration, the competition is less predominant and the situation resembles more a united front against the West. It is also clear that Iran is being careful as it still wants the nuclear deal it has been promised.

One might assume that the focus of discussions will not only be about the issue in the north with the YPG and Turkiye’s position, but also about mending the relationship. In the end, Assad wants Erdogan’s recognition. What can he offer in order to get it? Indeed, Assad needs Erdogan’s acceptance of his rule over Syria. It was, in fact, Erdogan who gave the strongest support to the opposition that sought to push Assad out. Hence, acceptance by the Turkish leader would mean that Syrians who benefited from this past support would need to fall back into line.
Speculation that Erdogan is seeking a meeting before the May elections appears unrealistic. The Turkish president will gain little domestically from talks unless a clear-cut solution is found for the YPG file. This “leak” is another clever Syrian media message to suggest that Turkiye is “doing the asking” and not Assad. In reality, it is the opposite. Assad desperately needs this recognition, which would mark the end of foreign hostility to his rule. The Syrian regime’s atrocities against its own people do not count in this pragmatic deal-making situation. The same applies to the conditions facing Syrian refugees who might face even more suffering.

The situation in northern Syria, US foreign policy, and relations between powers are out of Assad’s control. Yet, historically, his regime has been lucky or opportunistic with shifting regional events, which have played out in its favor. Indeed, the sudden resurgence of Daesh, and the opposition between allies from Turkiye and the US to Iran and Russia favors the regime in Damascus.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.