Blinken to meet Turkey’s FM Fidan in London

Fidan is seen as far more cerebral than his predecessor Mevlut Cavusoglu and is therefore expected to establish better rapport with Blinken. Fidan is also known to have Erdogan’s ear in a way that Cavusoglu never did, so he may be more effective. But whether he can change his boss’s mind on key issues such as Sweden’s NATO membership or would even choose to try remains unknown. Turkey lifted its earlier objections to Finland’s entry after the latter ended a ban on military sales to Turkey. However, both Turkey and Hungary, whose rightwing leader Viktor Orban is accused of being soft on Russia, are blocking Sweden’s path.

The Nordic countries applied to join NATO after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, thus launching the biggest land conflict in Europe since World War II.

The United States has been urging Turkey to approve Sweden’s accession in time for the NATO summit to be held in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius July 11-12. However, Erdogan continues to cite the Nordic country’s failure to adequately address Turkey’s security concerns, notably its refusal to extradite numerous Turkish citizens that Ankara regards as terrorists.

The list includes individuals who are allegedly linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is waging an armed insurgency against the Turkish state, and others affiliated with Fethullah Gulen, the Pennsylvania-based preacher who is blamed for the failed attempt to bloodily overthrow Erdogan in 2016. Turkey also wants Sweden to clamp down on pro-PKK rallies.

In late May, the conservative-led Swedish government said that it had updated its domestic terror legislation in a move that was in the works long before Turkey’s demands but covered its concerns, Swedish officials say. Stockholm additionally agreed to extradite a Turkish citizen who was jailed for possession of narcotics in Turkey and later sought asylum in Sweden. The Swedes have also ceased official meetings with members of the Syrian Democratic Forces, the Kurdish-led group that is the United States’ top ally in the war against the Islamic State in Syria. However, Erdogan remains unswayed and his uncompromising stance plays well on nationalist sentiment in the run-up to critical municipal elections to be held in March.

Chicken and egg 

In some ways Sweden’s problems with Turkey mirror those between Ankara and the United States. Turkey wants the Pentagon to scotch its alliance with the SDF, which it insists is a PKK front, and is seeking Gulen’s extradition. Washington has said no to both. However, several SDF-linked officials who were set to travel to Washington in February were told to hold off so as not to further provoke Ankara’s ire, Syrian Kurdish officials speaking not for attribution confirmed to Al-Monitor.

Washington is keen to ease tensions with Ankara, whose strategic importance was highlighted as much for the West as for the Kremlin by the conflict in Ukraine. Erdogan’s close rapport with President Vladimir Putin has allowed for continued sales of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea and for the exchange of prisoners between the warring sides.

In truth, Sweden may be more of a victim of US-Turkish tensions, which if eased could result in Turkey greenlighting its entry to NATO. Turkey is seeking to purchase $20 billion worth of F-16 fighter jets and nearly 80 modernization kits for its existing fleet. The request, made in October 2021, followed Turkey’s expulsion from the consortium that produces F-35 stealth fighter jets. Turkey was ejected from the program because of its acquisition of Russian-made S-400 missiles despite repeated demands by Washington that it scotch the deal. Turkey was slapped with additional congressional sanctions because of its 2019 assault against the SDF.

Senator Bob Menendez, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a fierce critic of Erdogan, says the F-16 sale cannot be approved unless Turkey agrees to let Sweden join NATO.

But Turkey doesn’t believe Menendez would sign off on the sale if it were to relent on Sweden.

Aaron Stein, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute who writes frequently about Turkey, argues that numerous lobbyists and defense industry actors appear to have convinced Turkey that it will get what he called the “Saudi Arabia treatment.” He explained, “In other words, [President Joe] Biden can declare an emergency and override congressional objections to the F-16s.

“If the administration does this, Congress would never approve an arms deal in the future. The Biden team knows this and aren’t interested, because the ban on arms sales is now written into the law,” Stein noted.