Von der Leyen hints at opening EU door for Ukraine, but challenges remain

KYIV — In a surprise visit to Ukraine over the weekend, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promised President Volodymyr Zelenskyy the EU will continue supporting Kyiv amid fears that the Israel-Hamas conflict is shifting attention away from the war in Ukraine.

Von der Leyen’s visit to the Ukrainian capital came ahead of a key announcement on November 8, when Brussels is set to publish its report card on the progress of Ukraine and other aspiring EU candidates. Von der Leyen strongly hinted that Brussels will recommend that EU countries open accession negotiations with Ukraine.

“I am confident that you can reach your ambitious goal: That is, for the historic decision to open the process of accession negotiations to be taken already this year,” von der Leyen said in a speech to Ukraine’s parliament on Saturday. Earlier in the day, she applauded Kyiv’s “excellent progress.”

In order to start accession talks, Ukraine is legally required to meet seven conditions laid out by the Commission, including judicial reforms and curbing corruption. Based on the Commission’s assessment, EU leaders will then discuss at their meeting in mid-December whether to launch formal membership talks with Ukraine.

Mykhailo Zhernakov, head of the board of the Dejure Foundation and a frequent critic of the Ukrainian government, told POLITICO he sees significant progress in judicial reform, even though a lot of work is still ahead. “We need to recognize Ukraine’s progress. If it is not done now, it will not give any reasons for our politicians to continue painful reforms,” Zhernakov said.

Enlargement decisions require the backing of all 27 EU countries. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán last month called for a new EU strategy toward Ukraine, arguing the current strategy has failed. Slovakia’s newly elected Prime Minister Robert Fico has also been critical toward military support for Ukraine. Other EU countries politically support enlargement, but stress that this has to go hand-in-hand with intra-European reform.

Therefore, the December EU leaders summit will be crucial, said Lukas Macek from the French think tank Institut Jacques Delors.

“The Central European countries are very enthusiastic supporters, but I wonder whether they won’t gradually change their minds, realizing that the new arrivals will deprive these countries of certain advantages, notably European funds,” Macek said, referring to the Polish tension toward Ukraine on grain.

Both Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanishyna, who is in charge of European integration, were optimistic on the future accession in comments on Saturday.

In a joint press conference with von der Leyen, Zelenskyy said that “the recommendations necessary to start negotiations on membership, we have implemented these recommendations. But Ukraine does not stop in the transformation of our institutions, reforms will continue.”

Asked by POLITICO whether she fears resistance from any of the EU’s 27 member states, Stefanishyna said: “I really think that even Hungary, they will use the momentum for certain manipulation and speculation, but by and large I think there will be consensus.”

Two wars
The visit of von der Leyen also sends a key message to Kyiv that despite the conflict in the Middle East, the EU is still focused on supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia.

The conflict between Israel and Hamas risked shunting Ukraine out of the political limelight, with a whirl of European and American leaders spinning through the Middle East. The U.S. especially is increasingly distracted by the war in the Middle East and has a divided stance on supplying more aid to Ukraine and a looming election in 2024.

In the joint press conference in Kyiv, Zelenskyy said that while it is clear “that the war in the Middle East takes over the focus of international attention,” he was confident about continued international support for Ukraine.

The renewed EU commitment also comes as the war in Ukraine has bogged down in the trenches, according to Ukraine’s Army Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny in an interview with the Economist. Zelenskyy took issue with the military general’s assessment.

“Everyone is getting tired and there are different opinions,” Zelensky told reporters on Saturday. “But this is not a stalemate.”

Increasingly, though, the West might have to start preparing for a scenario in which the combat in Ukraine drags on and risks ending up a frozen conflict, like North Korea.

“Security is a key part of the accession process,” said Kai-Olaf Lang of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. Solidarity and geopolitical considerations will remain key, he said. It’s one thing to negotiate and reform, Lang said, it’s another to provide security for Kyiv once it would become a full-fledged member of the EU.