Financial Times
“Syriza! Podemos! Ven-ce-remos!”
The three words – the last translating as “we will win” – are likely to be on the lips of Podemos supporters on Saturday, as they descend on Madrid for the first mass rally staged by Spain’s new anti-establishment party since it was founded just over a year ago.
The slogan, chanted and tweeted countless times in recent weeks, emphasises the close bond that has formed between Podemos and Syriza, its far-left ally in Greece that shocked Europe’s political establishment with a resounding victory in Sunday’s general election. It also sounds a blast of confidence that Podemos (We Can) will repeat Syriza’s victory when Spanish voters go to the polls later this year.
Political analysts say Syriza’s triumph presents a golden opportunity for Podemos, by helping to convince Spain’s disillusioned voters that radical change is possible.
But the past few days have also shown the pitfalls of the cross-country alliance: by hitching the party to the Syriza bandwagon, Podemos, founded just over a year ago, stands to suffer gravely if the new government in Athens falls short of expectations.
“The Syriza victory is a double-edged sword for Podemos – perhaps more so now than before the election,” said Jose Fernandez-Albertos, political analyst at Spain/s CSIC research centre.
“Any resolution of the Greek debt situation that can be interpreted as positive for the economy will obviously be a big boost for Podemos, and for its message that things can be changed. But if there is a bank run or if Greece ends up having to leave the eurozone, that would be very bad news for Podemos,” he added.
By that measure, the four days since Syriza’s Alexis Tsipras took office as Greek prime minister will have given Podemos, led by former university professor Pablo Iglesias, at least some cause for concern.
Panicked investors this week moved quickly to dump Greek assets amid reports of an accelerating deposit flight and heightened fears over a Greek exit from the eurozone. With countries such as Germany, Finland and Spain itself digging in for a tough round of negotiations over Greece’s debt pile, the pressure on Mr Tsipras is intense.
Mindful of the risks ahead, Podemos officials have started to shift their stance. In the weeks leading up to the Greek elections, the Spanish group showed itself consistently keen to emphasise the common ground with Syriza: the two parties form a common bloc in the European Parliament, and their leaders have spoken at each other’s campaign events. On Sunday, Podemos hailed Syriza’s victory as the beginning of a new political era for Europe.
In the days that followed, however, the tone has shifted – still supportive, but a little more detached. “We are keeping a distance because the situation in Greece and Spain is different,” Inigo Errejon, a Podemos leader, told the newspaper El Pais this week. “Spain is stronger, and has a greater capacity to respond.”
Such statements reflect not just fears of an economic meltdown in Greece but also some of the recent political moves made by Syriza itself.
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>Mr Tsipras’s decision to form a coalition with the Independent Greeks, a far-right nationalist party, and his strongly pro-Russian stance, for example, sit uncomfortably with Podemos’s leftwing political outlook. Syriza’s failure to hand any of the senior cabinet posts to a woman, meanwhile, was openly condemned by Podemos officials.
“Podemos is trying to put some distance between themselves and Syriza,” said Manuel Arias Maldonado, a political analyst at the University of Malaga.
“There is fear of being identified too closely with Greece. Many people are willing to vote for Podemos no matter what. But the issue of women in the cabinet, for example, should not be underestimated. The Russia issue, too, is something that has disquieted people here in Spain.”
One key reason why the example of Greece is crucial to Podemos is that the Spanish party is so young. Founded in January 2014, its poll ratings have surged on the back of widespread frustration with Spain’s political class and with the recent economic crisis. Several surveys have suggested Podemos could emerge as the biggest party in parliament this year.
But Podemos has only contested one election so far, and still lacks a fully-formed political programme. “There is a lot of uncertainty over who they are, what their agenda is and over the consequences of their policies,” Mr Fernandez-Albertos said.
“That means people will look at Greece and compare. The situation in Greece will be much more important [for Podemos] than we expected.”
