Besides the lack of interoperability between the S-400 and NATO military systems, America and other NATO allies view Russia as their most likely serious military opponent in various theaters. The advanced S-400 Russian weapons system appears precisely designed to shoot down planes like the F-35.
The Americans have threatened to not only cancel planned F-35 sales to Turkey, but to also remove Turkish companies currently participating in the building of the F-35s and to find the necessary parts elsewhere.
This week, tensions over the issue grew as Washington cancelled the training of additional Turkish pilots and maintenance crews at the F-35 base in Arizona. There are currently six Turkish pilots and around 20 Turkish maintenance people in Arizona undergoing training.
This decision came in the wake of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s statement last week ruling out the cancellation of Turkey’s purchase the S-400s. American officials remained adamant that Turkey cannot have both the S-400 Russian anti-aircraft system and F-35 American fighter planes.
If Ankara really does go ahead with the S-400 purchase, it therefore seems clear that Turkey will be for most intents and purposes sidelined from the NATO military alliance. In which case, why would President Erdogan insist on maintaining such a course?
Some might argue that Turkey simply wants a better price on the competing American Patriot air defense system. According to Reuters, Erdogan said on June 6 that America has not “given us an offer as good as the S-400s.” In this scenario, Mr. Erdogan behaves like any savvy customer in a Middle East bazaar where one must walk away at least three times before a merchant offers his best price.
Another possibility is the fact that the Russian S-400 is simply a much better air defense system than the American Patriot system. In virtually every category the S-400 outperforms the Patriot and “can shoot down targets moving at a speed of 17 km/second (while Patriot/PAC-3 could only shoot down a target moving at 8 km/second),” according to Defenseworld.net.
The S-400 can also engage with 72 targets simultaneously while tracking another 160 at the same time, compared to the Patriot’s engaging with 36 and tracking 125. Additionally, the S-400 locates a target at 600 km distance and can destroy it at a 400 km range, compared to 180 km and 100 km for the Patriot. The asymmetry in capabilities goes on even beyond these key differences, according to experts, while the S-400 costs about half the price of the Patriot ($500 million vs. $1 billion).
But why does Turkey even need such an advanced air defense system? What state is likely to launch aircraft or missiles at Turkey? The closest Turkey came to a military confrontation with another state was in 2015 against Russia, in fact, after Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet flying along the Turkish-Syrian border.
Of all of Turkey’s plausible enemies amongst neighboring states, the only one that could seriously threaten Turkey seems to be Russia. Greece, Bulgaria, Iraq, and Syria are much too small in comparison, and Iran’s military hardware is much too basic compared to Turkey’s modern armaments.
On the other hand, Ankara has an obvious need and use for advanced fighter aircraft, which can be used to bomb non-state actors as well as regular enemy militaries. Just about the only thing Turkey’s air force has done since the invasion of Cyprus in 1974 is bomb Kurds. Turkey thus announced plans some time ago to buy 100 American F-35 fighters at a cost of some $9 billion dollars. Now this purchase is in jeopardy because of the S-400 contract with Russia.
Another explanation for Turkey’s choices, however, comes with the possibility that some in Turkey actually want tensions or even confrontation with America. Being seen to stand up to America plays very well with Mr. Erdogan’s Islamist and Turkish nationalist base. Domestic political concerns, especially with the Turkish economy likely to slump further before it improves, always trump foreign policy objectives for Erdogan.
In this scenario, getting effectively kicked out of NATO would cause a “rally around the flag” effect for Mr. Erdogan’s regime. Many key officials in the Erdogan government likewise appear to prefer facing eastwards to maintaining an alliance with the West. An S-400 air defense system could even threaten American and other NATO air forces enforcing a possible no-fly zone over Kurdish parts of Syria.
If this is Mr. Erdogan’s plan, however, it would take brinksmanship in the region to a whole new level.
