By OSAMA AL-SHARIF, Arab News
US President Donald Trump’s hopes of winning a second term as president in November are looking feebler every day, as a majority of polls show him lagging behind his Democratic rival Joe Biden.
His approval ratings are down and the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has scuttled the one thing that Trump has prided himself on since his surprise victory in 2016: The economy. He has survived impeachment, a special investigation into Russian interference in the election he won, scandals over his personality, taxes, and his connections to felons. But it is too early to write him off.
Between now and November, anything could happen and Trump may still recover and turn his struggling campaign around. COVID-19 has delivered one of the weirdest presidential campaigns in recent history: No public rallies, at least for Biden, calls to cancel party conventions, and the possibility of another lockdown as the pandemic resurges, making it more likely that a record number of Americans will be voting by mail.
With Biden in the lead — this is his third presidential bid since he was first elected as a senator in 1972 — the chances of him becoming the 46th president of the US are becoming increasingly realistic; so much so that many foreign leaders are taking a fresh look at his political record, especially in the foreign policy arena. The Middle East is no exception.
Having served as Barack Obama’s vice president for two terms, Biden is a well-known commodity. Trump’s divisive, populist and isolationist policies have resonated with many people, especially in Eastern Europe and South America, where right-wing leaders and lawmakers have been elected. Biden is seen as a moderate — a leader who will restore America’s ties with Europe and help unite its allies. Perhaps more importantly, he is seen as someone who can heal the US and bring Americans together.
It is no wonder that Middle Eastern leaders have been seeking to understand what a Biden presidency would mean for them. One area where Biden is expected to reset the course of Washington’s policy is the Arab-Israeli conflict and, in particular, the dynamics of the Israel-Palestine struggle. Biden is on record rejecting a unilateral Israeli annexation of the West Bank. He is expected to re-engage with Palestinians, resume aid to the Palestinian Authority and reopen a US consulate to deal with the Palestinians in East Jerusalem. But it is highly unlikely that he will reverse Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital or relocate the embassy back to Tel Aviv.
Biden, who has described himself as a Zionist, will not pressure Israel into making concessions to the Palestinians, even as progressives in his own party are pushing to punish Israel economically if it carries out its planned illegal annexation. He is likely to maintain Obama’s second-term approach — one of minimum engagement — on the two-state solution.
On Iran, Biden’s campaign has hinted that the US will return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal of 2015 if Tehran recommits. Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018 and, since then, Iran has absolved itself from certain commitments and resumed uranium enrichment. But Biden is likely to side with America’s European partners, especially France, by demanding that some clauses in the deal be renegotiated — with a particular focus on the so-called “sunset clauses,” which allow certain restrictions to be lifted over time. France also wants to negotiate an additional agreement regarding Iran’s long-range missile program and its controversial regional agenda.
Biden’s position on Iran will be of great concern for America’s Gulf allies, especially Saudi Arabia, whose oil facilities were targeted by Iranian missiles last September. Last month, a UN report implicated Iran in the attack. Of all Trump’s regional policies, imposing tough sanctions on Tehran to pressure its leaders to renegotiate the nuclear deal is the one that has created most controversy, both regionally and internationally.
The contrast between Trump and Biden on the presence of US troops in the region will be another pressing issue. Arab allies of the US were discouraged by Obama’s so-called pivot to Asia, which allowed Iran, Turkey and Russia to fill the vacuum. Whether Biden will follow Obama’s footsteps or choose to recommit the US to the region’s deepening conflicts remains to be seen.
Biden is seen as a moderate — a leader who will restore America’s ties with Europe and help unite its allies.
Osama Al-Sharif
Like Trump, Biden wants to end America’s “forever wars” in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere. But his campaign has said that he also wants to restore America’s leadership and rebuild alliances and partnerships. When it comes to the Middle East, whose problems have got more complicated under Trump — Syria and Libya are stark examples — there is no way to perceive Biden’s presidency from a black and white, good and bad perspective.
With America battling a resurgence of COVID-19, resulting in record numbers of daily cases and a rising number of fatalities, the next president of the US, whether Trump or Biden, will have to focus almost entirely on conquering the pandemic, rebuilding the economy and restoring millions of lost jobs. For Biden, reversing many of Trump’s controversial domestic policies will keep him busy, meaning that, for many months, foreign policy will be a second priority.
- Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
