Brussels is set to discuss sanctions against Turkey at a meeting of EU leaders next month, as the country began firing exercises in contested waters of the eastern Mediterranean on Saturday.
Turkey and Greece are in a bitter dispute over maritime boundaries and energy exploration rights.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that all EU countries are obliged to back Athens in its longtime dispute with Ankara over claims to hydrocarbon resources in the area. Turkey is also prospecting in waters that Cyprus, another EU member, claims rights to.
On Friday the bloc’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borell, said sanctions were likely to be discussed on Sept. 24 and that they could include individuals, vessels or access to European ports and European technology in a bid to restrict Turkey’s ability to explore for natural gas in contested waters.
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas and Borrell both said the EU would try to boost dialogue between Greece and Turkey to calm the situation.
Any scaling back from Turkey of its energy drilling in the disputed area may also be rewarded with trade opportunities between the Turkish and EU markets, according to some insights.
But EU sanctions are unlikely to deter Turkey, according to one expert.
“The kind of sanctions the EU can put in place at this stage will likely be an extension of previous ones, related to persons and institutions involved in research and drilling activities,” Marc Pierini, a former EU ambassador to Turkey and now a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Europe foundation, told Arab News. “In my view, they are unlikely to deter Turkey.”
However he warned that there were other kinds of sanctions that Turkey could face, calling them “self-inflicted” ones.
“Turkey’s military activities, fierce anti-EU statements, unilateral creation of legal situations, and the repeated irreversible nature of these policy decisions have created an unpredictable political, security, and legal image of Turkey. This is likely to profoundly deter the international business and financial circles previously interested in Turkey.”
A new survey by Turkey’s MetroPoll company showed that around 60 percent of the Turks interviewed wanted the east Mediterranean crisis to be resolved diplomatically, while around 32 percent supported military action, if required. Supporters of the ruling party and its allies are divided between diplomatic and military options, while the opposition parties favor a diplomatic resolution.
Karol Wasilewski, an analyst at the Warsaw-based Polish Institute of International Affairs, said that Turkey should pay close attention to the message the EU was sending rather than focusing on sanctions.
“The EU has to defend its members,” he told Arab News. “The EU prioritizes diplomacy and dialogue to create a mutually beneficial formula of relations. There is a growing frustration among member states when it comes to Turkey, and there may be changes in the EU’s approach toward Turkey.”
Wasilewski said that the bloc’s approach to Turkey was of particular importance especially in light of Maas’ statement during his visit to Ankara that the future of the relationship would be determined until the end of the year.
“This may be a veiled suggestion from a German diplomat that if Turkey won’t engage in dialogue the Germans won’t be able to still be a moderating force when it comes to the EU’s policy toward Turkey,” Wasilewski added.
He urged decision-makers in Ankara to read the EU’s latest messages about the maritime dispute to find common ground and prevent further escalation and destabilization.
“They should also try to make use of the opportunity the EU still offers because if Germany joins France’s stance on Turkey and, as a result, the whole EU takes a decision to have a more assertive policy toward Turkey, the country will have difficulties in facing the consequences.”
Turkey’s shooting exercises will continue until Sept. 11. Ankara has made it clear that it will retaliate to any sanctions from the West.
