By Ahval
Turkey, China, Russia, Pakistan and Iran are brought together by a varying degree of grievance and opposing strategic interests against at least one member of the Quad, wrote analyst Don Mclain Gill for the Observer Research Foundation.
While the effectiveness of this grouping remains highly questionable, Mclain wrote, it is clear that it may aim to counter the growing influence of the Quad, comprising the United States, Japan, Australia and India.
The analyst points to the case of Turkey and its dissatisfaction towards the United States, stemming from the Donald Trump administration’s decision to slap sanctions on Ankara over its purchase of the S-400 Russian missiles last year.
Washington maintains the S-400 system poses a risk to the NATO alliance as well as the F-35, America’s most expensive weapons platform. The issue remains among the leading matters of contention between Ankara and Washington.
Moreover, “India’s befitting push-back to Turkey’s internationalisation and interference in its internal affairs in favour of Pakistan has also compelled it towards an anti-Quad group,’’ Mclain wrote.
India last year called upon the Turkish leadership, which is expanding bilateral relations with Pakistan, to not interfere with its internal matters and instead develop a proper understanding of facts after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that Kashmir was a matter of concern to both Ankara and Islamabad.
“Moreover, Pakistan continues to support Turkey’s ambition to take over the leadership role of the Islamic world due to the latter being the most vocal supporter of Pakistan on Kashmir,’’ the analyst wrote.
Despite a number of overlapping interests by the five countries, Mclain said, the grouping “cannot go far in presenting itself as a formidable counter to the Quad, let alone a robust and united grouping, due to several issues of mistrust and the pursuit of narrow, self-centred strategic objectives.’’
While zooming in on Turkey, the analyst noted that the country’s economic ties with Iran are improving, but added that the same does not hold true for the strategic realm.
“Turkey and Iran have mostly been on opposite sides in a number of regional geopolitical issues such as the Syrian conflict, the situation in Iraq, and engagements with Israel. Furthermore, when Turkey cut its purchase of Iranian oil, it sent mixed signals for the viability of their bilateral relationship,’’ according to the analyst.
As for Turkey’s relations with Russia, “there remains serious areas of mistrust between the two countries,’’ he wrote, adding, “Turkey’s interests to deepen its influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia along with its active military support for Ukraine continue to provoke its relations with Russia.’’
